📚 node [[economic forecasting methods]]

Economic Forecast Methods

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Three methods of #forecasting

Technques

  • Causal Methods
  • Time Series Methods
  • Qualitative Methods

Causal Methods - Relies on relationships between variables, relationships must be more than luck

Time Series Methods - trends in data over time

  • Trend Analysis
  • Moving average
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Trend and Seasonsal Decomposition
  • Box-Jenkins Arima

Qualitative Methods - highlights unobservable variables, takes place of hard data sources

  • Surveys
  • Delphi Method
  • Jury of Executive Opinion
  • #Salesforce composites
  • Consumer Market Survey
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