• [[rob haisfield]]
  • reported issues with [[obsidian embeds]]
    • documented them
    • fix them
• [[work]]
  • review doc 1 :)
  • review doc 2
• [[ladee]]
  • [[sound education]]
  • [[tinnitus]]
• [[agora]]
  • [[agora protocol]]

2022-08-10

• [[Food]]

  • Listened: [[THE FUTURE OF FOOD: How to achieve radical change with George Monbiot]]

• [[Climate fiction]]

  • Listened: [[GND Summer Book club]]

• The Texas McCombs Salem Center in [[Austin]], [[Texas]] is attracting potential economists regardless of their qualifications through a [[forecasting]] [[tournament]] hosted on [[Manifold Markets]].
  • Richard [[Hanania]], the [[policy]] researcher, is strongly associated with the Salem Center and this forecasting initiative.
  • For the question 'US GDP Growth 1% or More in 2022 Q3': collapsed:: true
    • Checked quarterly sales of [[Amazon]] and [[Walmart]].
    • Checked previous quarterly [[GDP]] [[growth]] in the United States for the last twenty one years.
    • Input 'how do [[purchasing]] [[habits]] change when gdp decreases?' in [[Elicit]], the GPT-powered [[research]] assistant.
      • 'How Economic [[Contraction]]s and [[Expansion]]s Affect Expenditure Patterns' seemed like the paper most immediately relevant, with 116 citations at the time of search.
        • Household spending during [[recession]] is typically tracked with an [[Engel curve]].
        • How is [[spending]] on positional goods, or goods that are used to signal [[status]] in a [[hierarchy]], stay the same during [[expansion]] and [[contraction]] of the things made by a group?
          • [[Adam Smith]] pointed out that women in England seemed more likely to feel [[shame]] at not having nicer dresses than women in Scotland.
          • Along with having better quality of [[life]], it was suggested that people spend [[money]] to show that they have made themselves higher on the social [[hierarchy]].
          • While people with more [[money]] within a nation reported being happier than people with less, people who made less money in other nations were still [[happy]]- so long as they had more money than their [[peers]].
          • Relatively less [[power]] increases [[spending]] to keep [[status]] up.
            • People often use [[debt]] to [[pay]] for things that they can use to show that they have the [[status]] they want.
              • [[Schor]] says that as people spent more time watching [[television]], they started trying to keep up with the upper middle class and [[rich]] lifestyles they saw on the television, instead of their [[neighbors]]. collapsed:: true
                • In a place where people are paying for things to pay for [[status]], when the [[rich]] increase [[spending]], the group below them also increases spending, and so on, until the chain hits the ground.
                  • [[Jewelry]], prestigious [[cars]], [[clothing]], [[restaurants]] and [[houses]] are considering positional goods, or things people buy to show they have [[status]].
      • Checked [[Google]] [[trends]] for a particular Rivian model, Samsung Watch, Toyota RAV4, H&M, GQ, Wirecutter, 'food near me', 'pizza near me', and 'sushi near me'. Assuming trends in search may reflect trends in purchasing. collapsed:: true
        • The movement of the lines did not indicate dropping interest in anywhere except 'sushi near me'.
      • https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a40558214/2022-first-half-tesla-sales-up-46-percent-globally/ collapsed:: true
        • While Tesla [[sales]] were up globally, they were down in the United States. Sales were also down for Ford, VW, Audi, and Porsche.
      • Checked Signet Jeweler's revenue. They report a 26.9% increase in comparison to last year. collapsed:: true
        • Writer does not say why or how the jewelry [[market]] will decrease, other than assuming a repeat of the 2007 recession and the corresponding crash in jewelry sales: https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2022/03/21/jewelry-market-must-prepare-for-a-steep-drop-but-signet-jewelers-is-ready/?sh=38ddd03c330f
  • For the question [['Will [[Russia]] control [[Kherson]] on 10/31/22']]:
    • Searched 'Херсо́н' on Twitter and read latest tweets.
      • Stray comments suggest that the population is not as sympathetic to Russian occupation as the population is in the [[Donbass]].