Trend Analysis in Forecasting

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Exponentional Smoothing is a better predictor of future value, or sticks to the actual observed value based on past values, better than Smoothed averages.

Exponential smoothing

File -> Options -> Add-ins -> Manage Excel Add-ins -> Go -> Analysis ToolPak -> Ok -> Data Tab -> Data tab -> Data Analysis -> Exponential Smoothing -> Choose values to predict -> weight between 0 and 1 (default 0.5) -> choose target range -> Ok